Universitario De Vinto vs Guabira

29 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +5.7 pp

Universitario De Vinto

Guabira

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 58.3% DRAW 21.1% AWAY 20.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 52.6% 1.91 DRAW 22.9% 4.39 AWAY 24.5% 4.10

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Universitario De Vinto clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 58.3% win probability, compared with 52.6% implied by the market. The 5.7 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Universitario De Vinto has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Universitario De Vinto Guabira

Shots 18.0 · On target 6.5 Shots 8.3 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output favours Universitario De Vinto, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Universitario De Vinto Guabira

Shots allowed 16.0 · On target allowed 5.0 Shots allowed 18.5 · On target allowed 6.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Universitario De Vinto Guabira

The combined recent performance profile favours Universitario De Vinto.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Universitario De Vinto ↓ -0.14 (-6.8%)

Guabira ↑ +1.25 (+43.9%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.