Chelsea (W) vs Arsenal (W)

27 Sep 2026 · 17:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.2 pp

Chelsea (W)

Arsenal (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 40.5% DRAW 26.6% AWAY 32.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 40.4% 2.35 DRAW 26.9% 3.52 AWAY 32.7% 2.90

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.2 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Arsenal (W)

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Chelsea (W) Arsenal (W)

Shots 19.5 · On target 8.5 Shots 19.8 · On target 6.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Chelsea (W) Arsenal (W)

Shots allowed 7.8 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 4.5 · On target allowed 1.8

Arsenal (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Chelsea (W) Arsenal (W)

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Chelsea (W) ↓ -0.06 (-2.5%)

Arsenal (W) ↑ +0.10 (+3.6%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.