Estudiantes Merida vs Trujillanos

20 Sep 2026 · 23:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.3 pp

Estudiantes Merida

Trujillanos

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 60.2% DRAW 24.2% AWAY 15.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 57.9% 1.66 DRAW 25.1% 3.83 AWAY 17.0% 5.64

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Estudiantes Merida

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Estudiantes Merida Trujillanos

Shots 17.8 · On target 4.8 Shots 8.8 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours Estudiantes Merida, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Estudiantes Merida Trujillanos

Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 10.3 · On target allowed 4.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Estudiantes Merida Trujillanos

The combined recent performance profile favours Estudiantes Merida.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Estudiantes Merida ↓ -0.07 (-3.9%)

Trujillanos ↑ +0.54 (+10.6%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.