Motril vs Alhaurino

27 Sep 2026 · 19:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.1 pp

Motril

Alhaurino

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 60.8% DRAW 24.3% AWAY 14.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 60.8% 1.53 DRAW 24.4% 3.82 AWAY 14.8% 6.32

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.1 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Motril

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Motril Alhaurino

Shots 11.8 · On target 5.0 Shots 8.8 · On target 2.5

Recent attacking output favours Motril, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Motril Alhaurino

Shots allowed 9.3 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 6.3 · On target allowed 2.3

Alhaurino has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Motril Alhaurino

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Motril ↑ +0.17 (+12.7%)

Alhaurino ↓ -1.68 (-21.0%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.