Moravia (W) vs Municipal Pococi (W)

03 Oct 2026 · 04:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.9 pp

Moravia (W)

Municipal Pococi (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 60.4% DRAW 19.7% AWAY 19.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 56.5% 1.70 DRAW 21.3% 4.50 AWAY 22.2% 4.33

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Moravia (W) relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 60.4% win probability, compared with 56.5% implied by the market. The 3.9 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Moravia (W) has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Moravia (W) Municipal Pococi (W)

Shots 6.5 · On target 4.5 Shots 2.5 · On target 2.0

Recent attacking output favours Moravia (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Moravia (W) Municipal Pococi (W)

Shots allowed 13.8 · On target allowed 6.3 Shots allowed 15.8 · On target allowed 7.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Moravia (W) Municipal Pococi (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Moravia (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Moravia (W) ↓ -0.15 (-7.1%)

Municipal Pococi (W) ↑ +1.32 (+44.0%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.