Crystal Palace (W) vs Charlton (W)

30 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.5 pp

Crystal Palace (W)

Charlton (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 56.1% DRAW 22.3% AWAY 21.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 54.6% 1.75 DRAW 23.2% 4.11 AWAY 22.2% 4.30

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Crystal Palace (W)

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Crystal Palace (W) Charlton (W)

Shots 11.3 · On target 4.3 Shots 3.5 · On target 1.3

Recent attacking output favours Crystal Palace (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Crystal Palace (W) Charlton (W)

Shots allowed 22.0 · On target allowed 8.3 Shots allowed 16.8 · On target allowed 5.8

Charlton (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Crystal Palace (W) Charlton (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Crystal Palace (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Crystal Palace (W) ↓ -0.25 (-12.6%)

Charlton (W) ↑ +0.46 (+12.0%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.