West Ham (W) vs Southampton (W)

30 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.5 pp

West Ham (W)

Southampton (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 63.3% DRAW 19.5% AWAY 17.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 67.4% 1.42 DRAW 19.0% 5.02 AWAY 13.6% 7.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Southampton (W) relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 17.2% win probability, compared with 13.6% implied by the market. The 3.5 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Southampton (W) has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

West Ham (W) Southampton (W)

Shots 7.5 · On target 3.3 Shots 11.5 · On target 5.3

Recent attacking output favours Southampton (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

West Ham (W) Southampton (W)

Shots allowed 12.8 · On target allowed 5.3 Shots allowed 5.8 · On target allowed 2.8

Southampton (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

West Ham (W) Southampton (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Southampton (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

West Ham (W) ↑ +0.19 (+15.8%)

Southampton (W) ↓ -0.50 (-6.7%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.