Brighton (W) vs Charlton (W)

23 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +5.3 pp

Brighton (W)

Charlton (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 81.0% DRAW 12.6% AWAY 6.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 75.8% 1.23 DRAW 15.3% 6.10 AWAY 8.9% 10.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Brighton (W) clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 81.0% win probability, compared with 75.8% implied by the market. The 5.3 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Brighton (W) has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Brighton (W) Charlton (W)

Shots 13.5 · On target 6.8 Shots 2.5 · On target 0.5

Recent attacking output favours Brighton (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Brighton (W) Charlton (W)

Shots allowed 10.0 · On target allowed 5.0 Shots allowed 16.0 · On target allowed 7.3

Brighton (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Brighton (W) Charlton (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Brighton (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Brighton (W) ↓ -0.19 (-13.4%)

Charlton (W) ↑ +4.60 (+76.7%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.