Crystal Palace (W) vs Watford (W)

23 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.6 pp

Crystal Palace (W)

Watford (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 71.6% DRAW 15.9% AWAY 12.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 76.1% 1.26 DRAW 15.0% 6.40 AWAY 8.9% 10.80

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Watford (W) relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 12.4% win probability, compared with 8.9% implied by the market. The 3.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Watford (W) has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Crystal Palace (W) Watford (W)

Shots 5.0 · On target 2.8 Shots 8.5 · On target 3.0

Recent attacking output favours Watford (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Crystal Palace (W) Watford (W)

Shots allowed 24.3 · On target allowed 8.8 Shots allowed 11.5 · On target allowed 4.5

Watford (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Crystal Palace (W) Watford (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Watford (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Crystal Palace (W) ↓ -0.03 (-1.9%)

Watford (W) ↑ +4.30 (+66.2%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.