Aston Villa (W) vs Newcastle (W)

30 Sep 2026 · 20:30

OPPORTUNITY

STRONG EDGE AWAY +8.3 pp

Aston Villa (W)

Newcastle (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 38.8% DRAW 22.2% AWAY 39.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 46.4% 2.09 DRAW 22.9% 4.23 AWAY 30.7% 3.15

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Newcastle (W) substantially higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 39.0% win probability, compared with 30.7% implied by the market. The 8.3 percentage-point difference indicates a strong divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Newcastle (W) has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Aston Villa (W) Newcastle (W)

Shots 5.8 · On target 2.0 Shots 12.3 · On target 6.0

Recent attacking output favours Newcastle (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Aston Villa (W) Newcastle (W)

Shots allowed 17.0 · On target allowed 6.8 Shots allowed 5.5 · On target allowed 3.0

Newcastle (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Aston Villa (W) Newcastle (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Newcastle (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Aston Villa (W) ↑ +0.18 (+9.2%)

Newcastle (W) ↑ +0.25 (+8.6%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.