Birmingham (W) vs Liverpool (W)

30 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.8 pp

Birmingham (W)

Liverpool (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 14.7% DRAW 18.7% AWAY 66.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 15.4% 6.20 DRAW 19.7% 4.84 AWAY 64.9% 1.47

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.8 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Liverpool (W) has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Birmingham (W) Liverpool (W)

Shots 9.0 · On target 4.3 Shots 12.0 · On target 5.3

Recent attacking output favours Liverpool (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Birmingham (W) Liverpool (W)

Shots allowed 14.5 · On target allowed 6.3 Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 4.3

Liverpool (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Birmingham (W) Liverpool (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Liverpool (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Birmingham (W) ↑ +0.45 (+7.8%)

Liverpool (W) ↑ +0.00 (+0.1%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.