Durham (W) vs Man Utd (W)

30 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.2 pp

Durham (W)

Man Utd (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 1.9% DRAW 2.9% AWAY 95.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 1.6% 61.00 DRAW 3.2% 31.00 AWAY 95.1% 1.06

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.2 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Man Utd (W) has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Durham (W) Man Utd (W)

Shots 8.0 · On target 3.5 Shots 10.3 · On target 6.0

Recent attacking output favours Man Utd (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Durham (W) Man Utd (W)

Shots allowed 14.3 · On target allowed 8.0 Shots allowed 13.5 · On target allowed 6.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Durham (W) Man Utd (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Man Utd (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Durham (W) ↑ +20.00 (+48.8%)

Man Utd (W) ↑ +0.02 (+1.7%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.