Everton (W) vs Birmingham (W)

23 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +5.3 pp

Everton (W)

Birmingham (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 55.0% DRAW 24.6% AWAY 20.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 49.8% 1.93 DRAW 25.9% 3.70 AWAY 24.3% 3.95

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Everton (W) clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 55.0% win probability, compared with 49.8% implied by the market. The 5.3 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Everton (W)

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Everton (W) Birmingham (W)

Shots 13.8 · On target 3.5 Shots 10.0 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Everton (W) Birmingham (W)

Shots allowed 7.3 · On target allowed 2.0 Shots allowed 14.8 · On target allowed 7.0

Everton (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Everton (W) Birmingham (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Everton (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Everton (W) ↑ +0.40 (+25.8%)

Birmingham (W) ↓ -1.05 (-21.0%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.