Nottm Forest (W) vs Aston Villa (W)

23 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

STRONG EDGE HOME +9.4 pp

Nottm Forest (W)

Aston Villa (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 31.2% DRAW 25.4% AWAY 43.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 21.8% 4.30 DRAW 24.1% 3.88 AWAY 54.1% 1.73

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Nottm Forest (W) substantially higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 31.2% win probability, compared with 21.8% implied by the market. The 9.4 percentage-point difference indicates a strong divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Nottm Forest (W) has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Nottm Forest (W) Aston Villa (W)

Shots 10.5 · On target 4.8 Shots 5.5 · On target 2.5

Recent attacking output favours Nottm Forest (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Nottm Forest (W) Aston Villa (W)

Shots allowed 6.5 · On target allowed 2.5 Shots allowed 22.0 · On target allowed 8.5

Nottm Forest (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Nottm Forest (W) Aston Villa (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Nottm Forest (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Nottm Forest (W) ↑ +0.40 (+10.1%)

Aston Villa (W) ↑ +0.00 (+0.2%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.