Man Utd (W) vs Sheff Utd (W)

23 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.8 pp

Man Utd (W)

Sheff Utd (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 87.9% DRAW 8.0% AWAY 4.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 88.7% 1.06 DRAW 8.1% 11.70 AWAY 3.2% 29.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.8 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Sheff Utd (W) has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Man Utd (W) Sheff Utd (W)

Shots 4.3 · On target 1.8 Shots 8.5 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output favours Sheff Utd (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Man Utd (W) Sheff Utd (W)

Shots allowed 15.5 · On target allowed 7.3 Shots allowed 13.5 · On target allowed 7.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Man Utd (W) Sheff Utd (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Sheff Utd (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Man Utd (W) ↓ -0.02 (-1.9%)

Sheff Utd (W) ↑ +6.00 (+26.1%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.