Union Molinense CF vs Mazarron

27 Sep 2026 · 19:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.8 pp

Union Molinense CF

Mazarron

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 43.4% DRAW 32.0% AWAY 24.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 39.6% 2.50 DRAW 31.9% 3.10 AWAY 28.5% 3.48

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Union Molinense CF relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 43.4% win probability, compared with 39.6% implied by the market. The 3.8 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Union Molinense CF

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Union Molinense CF Mazarron

Shots 13.3 · On target 6.5 Shots 5.5 · On target 1.8

Recent attacking output favours Union Molinense CF, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Union Molinense CF Mazarron

Shots allowed 7.5 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 8.0 · On target allowed 4.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Union Molinense CF Mazarron

The combined recent performance profile favours Union Molinense CF.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Union Molinense CF ↑ +0.43 (+21.0%)

Mazarron ↑ +0.08 (+2.2%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.