USA vs Chile

30 Sep 2026 · 02:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.5 pp

USA

Chile

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 68.9% DRAW 19.1% AWAY 12.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 65.4% 1.52 DRAW 20.8% 4.79 AWAY 13.8% 7.21

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for USA relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 68.9% win probability, compared with 65.4% implied by the market. The 3.5 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

USA has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

USA Chile

Shots 12.0 · On target 4.3 Shots 8.3 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output favours USA, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

USA Chile

Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 16.0 · On target allowed 6.5

USA has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

USA Chile

The combined recent performance profile favours USA.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

USA ↓ -0.06 (-3.7%)

Chile ↑ +0.79 (+12.3%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.