UD Arenal vs UE Porreres

26 Sep 2026 · 17:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.6 pp

UD Arenal

UE Porreres

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 14.2% DRAW 23.9% AWAY 61.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 13.6% 7.50 DRAW 23.5% 4.33 AWAY 62.9% 1.62

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.6 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: UD Arenal

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

UD Arenal UE Porreres

Shots 9.8 · On target 4.3 Shots 9.3 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

UD Arenal UE Porreres

Shots allowed 10.0 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 8.0 · On target allowed 3.3

UE Porreres has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

UD Arenal UE Porreres

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

UD Arenal ↑ +4.10 (+120.6%)

UE Porreres ↓ -0.29 (-15.1%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.