Notts County vs Grimsby

22 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE AWAY +4.2 pp

Notts County

Grimsby

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 38.7% DRAW 25.2% AWAY 36.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 42.5% 2.25 DRAW 25.6% 3.74 AWAY 31.9% 3.01

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Grimsby clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 36.1% win probability, compared with 31.9% implied by the market. The 4.2 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Grimsby has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Notts County Grimsby

Shots 10.3 · On target 1.5 Shots 13.5 · On target 5.5

Recent attacking output favours Grimsby, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Notts County Grimsby

Shots allowed 12.5 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 7.3 · On target allowed 2.5

Grimsby has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Notts County Grimsby

The combined recent performance profile favours Grimsby.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Notts County ↑ +0.05 (+2.3%)

Grimsby ↓ -0.40 (-11.6%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.