SD Sarriana vs Gran Pena

26 Sep 2026 · 19:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.4 pp

SD Sarriana

Gran Pena

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 54.7% DRAW 25.6% AWAY 19.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 56.3% 1.71 DRAW 25.3% 3.80 AWAY 18.3% 5.25

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Gran Pena has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

SD Sarriana Gran Pena

Shots 13.8 · On target 5.3 Shots 14.5 · On target 6.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

SD Sarriana Gran Pena

Shots allowed 11.5 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 8.3 · On target allowed 4.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

SD Sarriana Gran Pena

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

SD Sarriana ↓ -0.14 (-7.6%)

Gran Pena ↑ +0.92 (+21.2%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.