Australia vs Brazil

29 Sep 2026 · 12:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.2 pp

Australia

Brazil

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 10.0% DRAW 16.6% AWAY 73.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 10.9% 8.95 DRAW 17.8% 5.51 AWAY 71.3% 1.37

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.2 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Brazil has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Australia Brazil

Shots 10.5 · On target 3.0 Shots 15.5 · On target 6.3

Recent attacking output favours Brazil, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Australia Brazil

Shots allowed 15.3 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 3.8

Brazil has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Australia Brazil

The combined recent performance profile favours Brazil.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Australia ↑ +1.61 (+23.4%)

Brazil ↑ +0.02 (+1.7%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.