Australia vs Brazil

25 Sep 2026 · 12:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.9 pp

Australia

Brazil

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 8.4% DRAW 14.8% AWAY 76.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 9.2% 10.70 DRAW 15.9% 6.15 AWAY 74.9% 1.31

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.9 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Brazil has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Australia Brazil

Shots 10.5 · On target 3.0 Shots 15.5 · On target 6.3

Recent attacking output favours Brazil, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Australia Brazil

Shots allowed 15.3 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 3.8

Brazil has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Australia Brazil

The combined recent performance profile favours Brazil.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Australia ↑ +3.96 (+58.8%)

Brazil ↓ -0.20 (-13.2%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.