Nottm Forest U21 vs Sporting U21

30 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.8 pp

Nottm Forest U21

Sporting U21

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 50.5% DRAW 22.2% AWAY 27.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 46.7% 2.11 DRAW 23.5% 4.21 AWAY 29.8% 3.31

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Nottm Forest U21 relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 50.5% win probability, compared with 46.7% implied by the market. The 3.8 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Nottm Forest U21

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Nottm Forest U21 Sporting U21

Shots 13.5 · On target 7.0 Shots 9.0 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output favours Nottm Forest U21, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Nottm Forest U21 Sporting U21

Shots allowed 14.5 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 13.0 · On target allowed 5.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Nottm Forest U21 Sporting U21

The combined recent performance profile favours Nottm Forest U21.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Nottm Forest U21 ↓ -0.19 (-8.2%)

Sporting U21 ↑ +0.81 (+32.4%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.