Real Sport Club vs Gremio Atletico Farroupilha

30 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.9 pp

Real Sport Club

Gremio Atletico Farroupilha

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 61.5% DRAW 20.1% AWAY 18.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 58.6% 1.63 DRAW 21.5% 4.45 AWAY 19.9% 4.78

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Real Sport Club relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 61.5% win probability, compared with 58.6% implied by the market. The 2.9 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Real Sport Club

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Real Sport Club Gremio Atletico Farroupilha

Shots 13.3 · On target 6.0 Shots 2.5 · On target 1.5

Recent attacking output favours Real Sport Club, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Real Sport Club Gremio Atletico Farroupilha

Shots allowed 6.8 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 2.3 · On target allowed 0.3

Gremio Atletico Farroupilha has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Real Sport Club Gremio Atletico Farroupilha

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Real Sport Club ↑ +0.09 (+6.1%)

Gremio Atletico Farroupilha ↑ +0.03 (+0.6%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.