Planalto EC (W) vs Anapolina (W)

28 Sep 2026 · 20:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.4 pp

Planalto EC (W)

Anapolina (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 37.0% DRAW 25.2% AWAY 37.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 39.9% 2.26 DRAW 25.7% 3.50 AWAY 34.4% 2.62

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Anapolina (W) relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 37.8% win probability, compared with 34.4% implied by the market. The 3.4 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Anapolina (W)

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Planalto EC (W) Anapolina (W)

Shots 12.8 · On target 4.0 Shots 10.0 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Planalto EC (W) Anapolina (W)

Shots allowed 12.0 · On target allowed 5.8 Shots allowed 3.3 · On target allowed 1.3

Anapolina (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Planalto EC (W) Anapolina (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Anapolina (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Planalto EC (W) ↑ +0.01 (+0.4%)

Anapolina (W) ↑ +0.02 (+0.8%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.