United Arab Emirates vs Qatar

30 Sep 2026 · 19:30

OPPORTUNITY

STRONG EDGE HOME +6.6 pp

United Arab Emirates

Qatar

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 55.2% DRAW 23.2% AWAY 21.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 48.7% 1.99 DRAW 24.9% 3.90 AWAY 26.5% 3.66

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates United Arab Emirates substantially higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 55.2% win probability, compared with 48.7% implied by the market. The 6.6 percentage-point difference indicates a strong divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: United Arab Emirates

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

United Arab Emirates Qatar

Shots 8.5 · On target 4.3 Shots 10.3 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

United Arab Emirates Qatar

Shots allowed 1.5 · On target allowed 0.0 Shots allowed 16.3 · On target allowed 4.8

United Arab Emirates has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

United Arab Emirates Qatar

The combined recent performance profile favours United Arab Emirates.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

United Arab Emirates ↓ -0.51 (-20.4%)

Qatar ↑ +0.91 (+33.1%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.