Yemen vs Qatar

27 Sep 2026 · 17:55

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.4 pp

Yemen

Qatar

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 13.9% DRAW 17.4% AWAY 68.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 10.5% 9.11 DRAW 16.4% 5.86 AWAY 73.1% 1.31

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Yemen relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 13.9% win probability, compared with 10.5% implied by the market. The 3.4 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Qatar

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Yemen Qatar

Shots 2.5 · On target 0.8 Shots 7.5 · On target 2.8

Recent attacking output favours Qatar, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Yemen Qatar

Shots allowed 4.8 · On target allowed 2.3 Shots allowed 20.5 · On target allowed 6.0

Yemen has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Yemen Qatar

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Yemen ↓ -0.39 (-4.1%)

Qatar ↑ +0.13 (+11.1%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.