Qatar vs Bahrain

24 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE AWAY +4.4 pp

Qatar

Bahrain

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 40.4% DRAW 30.8% AWAY 28.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 45.7% 2.09 DRAW 29.9% 3.20 AWAY 24.4% 3.91

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Bahrain clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 28.8% win probability, compared with 24.4% implied by the market. The 4.4 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Qatar

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Qatar Bahrain

Shots 6.0 · On target 1.8 Shots 3.5 · On target 1.3

Recent attacking output favours Qatar, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Qatar Bahrain

Shots allowed 21.0 · On target allowed 6.0 Shots allowed 4.3 · On target allowed 2.3

Bahrain has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Qatar Bahrain

The combined recent performance profile favours Bahrain.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Qatar ↑ +0.09 (+4.5%)

Bahrain ↑ +0.66 (+20.3%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.