Saudi Arabia vs Iraq

29 Sep 2026 · 19:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.1 pp

Saudi Arabia

Iraq

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 53.0% DRAW 29.4% AWAY 17.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 50.9% 1.91 DRAW 29.6% 3.28 AWAY 19.4% 5.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.1 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Saudi Arabia has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Saudi Arabia Iraq

Shots 12.0 · On target 4.5 Shots 9.5 · On target 2.8

Recent attacking output favours Saudi Arabia, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Saudi Arabia Iraq

Shots allowed 13.0 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 15.0 · On target allowed 5.5

Saudi Arabia has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Saudi Arabia Iraq

The combined recent performance profile favours Saudi Arabia.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Saudi Arabia ↓ -0.02 (-1.1%)

Iraq = (0.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.