Cape Verde Islands vs Rwanda

29 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +2.7 pp

Cape Verde Islands

Rwanda

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 59.9% DRAW 25.6% AWAY 14.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 64.3% 1.48 DRAW 23.9% 3.98 AWAY 11.8% 8.07

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Rwanda relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 14.5% win probability, compared with 11.8% implied by the market. The 2.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Cape Verde Islands

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Cape Verde Islands Rwanda

Shots 12.3 · On target 3.0 Shots 5.3 · On target 2.3

Recent attacking output favours Cape Verde Islands, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Cape Verde Islands Rwanda

Shots allowed 18.3 · On target allowed 5.5 Shots allowed 1.8 · On target allowed 0.5

Rwanda has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Cape Verde Islands Rwanda

The combined recent performance profile favours Rwanda.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Cape Verde Islands ↑ +0.13 (+9.6%)

Rwanda ↓ -0.68 (-7.8%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.