Ario Eslamshahr vs Havadar SC

28 Sep 2026 · 15:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.2 pp

Ario Eslamshahr

Havadar SC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 52.6% DRAW 30.0% AWAY 17.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 52.4% 1.72 DRAW 29.6% 3.04 AWAY 18.0% 5.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.2 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Ario Eslamshahr

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Ario Eslamshahr Havadar SC

Shots 4.8 · On target 2.3 Shots 4.0 · On target 2.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Ario Eslamshahr Havadar SC

Shots allowed 3.8 · On target allowed 0.8 Shots allowed 5.5 · On target allowed 1.8

Ario Eslamshahr has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Ario Eslamshahr Havadar SC

The combined recent performance profile favours Ario Eslamshahr.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Ario Eslamshahr ↓ -0.34 (-16.5%)

Havadar SC ↑ +1.40 (+38.8%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.