Mes Kerman vs SaiPa FC

22 Sep 2026 · 16:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.6 pp

Mes Kerman

SaiPa FC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 31.9% DRAW 34.3% AWAY 33.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 29.3% 3.08 DRAW 33.3% 2.71 AWAY 37.4% 2.41

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Mes Kerman relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 31.9% win probability, compared with 29.3% implied by the market. The 2.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Mes Kerman

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Mes Kerman SaiPa FC

Shots 11.8 · On target 6.3 Shots 5.5 · On target 0.5

Recent attacking output favours Mes Kerman, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Mes Kerman SaiPa FC

Shots allowed 5.3 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 3.5 · On target allowed 1.8

SaiPa FC has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Mes Kerman SaiPa FC

The combined recent performance profile favours Mes Kerman.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Mes Kerman ↑ +0.04 (+1.3%)

SaiPa FC ↓ -0.10 (-4.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.