Sporting Cristal (W) vs Alianza Lima (W)

20 Sep 2026 · 22:15

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.9 pp

Sporting Cristal (W)

Alianza Lima (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 29.4% DRAW 23.3% AWAY 47.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 30.4% 3.10 DRAW 24.2% 3.90 AWAY 45.4% 2.08

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.9 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Alianza Lima (W) has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Sporting Cristal (W) Alianza Lima (W)

Shots 14.8 · On target 5.8 Shots 17.0 · On target 7.8

Recent attacking output favours Alianza Lima (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Sporting Cristal (W) Alianza Lima (W)

Shots allowed 9.5 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 7.3 · On target allowed 2.5

Alianza Lima (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Sporting Cristal (W) Alianza Lima (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Alianza Lima (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Sporting Cristal (W) ↓ -0.30 (-8.8%)

Alianza Lima (W) ↑ +0.15 (+7.8%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.