China PR (W) vs Philippines (W)

21 Sep 2026 · 09:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.0 pp

China PR (W)

Philippines (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 85.5% DRAW 9.9% AWAY 4.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 82.5% 1.14 DRAW 11.8% 8.00 AWAY 5.7% 16.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for China PR (W) relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 85.5% win probability, compared with 82.5% implied by the market. The 3.0 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

China PR (W) has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

China PR (W) Philippines (W)

Shots 20.3 · On target 6.3 Shots 8.8 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours China PR (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

China PR (W) Philippines (W)

Shots allowed 5.3 · On target allowed 2.5 Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 3.5

China PR (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

China PR (W) Philippines (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours China PR (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

China PR (W) ↓ -0.12 (-9.4%)

Philippines (W) ↑ +6.30 (+61.8%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.