South Korea (W) vs North Korea (W)

21 Sep 2026 · 09:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.8 pp

South Korea (W)

North Korea (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 6.9% DRAW 16.4% AWAY 76.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 8.8% 11.00 DRAW 18.3% 5.25 AWAY 72.9% 1.32

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for North Korea (W) relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 76.7% win probability, compared with 72.9% implied by the market. The 3.8 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

North Korea (W) has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

South Korea (W) North Korea (W)

Shots 18.0 · On target 8.0 Shots 27.5 · On target 14.8

Recent attacking output favours North Korea (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

South Korea (W) North Korea (W)

Shots allowed 6.0 · On target allowed 2.3 Shots allowed 0.3 · On target allowed 0.0

North Korea (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

South Korea (W) North Korea (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours North Korea (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

South Korea (W) ↑ +4.18 (+61.3%)

North Korea (W) ↓ -0.13 (-9.1%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.