Irapuato vs Lobos ULM

27 Sep 2026 · 03:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.0 pp

Irapuato

Lobos ULM

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 56.9% DRAW 23.1% AWAY 20.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 53.9% 1.69 DRAW 24.2% 3.75 AWAY 21.9% 4.15

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Irapuato relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 56.9% win probability, compared with 53.9% implied by the market. The 3.0 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Irapuato

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Irapuato Lobos ULM

Shots 16.0 · On target 8.8 Shots 8.8 · On target 3.0

Recent attacking output favours Irapuato, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Irapuato Lobos ULM

Shots allowed 13.8 · On target allowed 5.0 Shots allowed 8.3 · On target allowed 4.8

Lobos ULM has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Irapuato Lobos ULM

The combined recent performance profile favours Irapuato.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Irapuato ↑ +0.02 (+1.2%)

Lobos ULM ↑ +0.15 (+3.8%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.