Tigres de Álica FC vs Tritones Vallarta MFC

27 Sep 2026 · 02:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.4 pp

Tigres de Álica FC

Tritones Vallarta MFC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 47.3% DRAW 29.9% AWAY 22.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 45.8% 2.22 DRAW 29.9% 3.40 AWAY 24.2% 4.20

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Tigres de Álica FC

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Tigres de Álica FC Tritones Vallarta MFC

Shots 7.5 · On target 3.5 Shots 4.0 · On target 1.8

Recent attacking output favours Tigres de Álica FC, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Tigres de Álica FC Tritones Vallarta MFC

Shots allowed 7.0 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 7.3 · On target allowed 2.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Tigres de Álica FC Tritones Vallarta MFC

The combined recent performance profile favours Tigres de Álica FC.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Tigres de Álica FC ↑ +0.46 (+26.1%)

Tritones Vallarta MFC ↓ -0.04 (-0.9%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.