Barra FC vs Nacao

24 Sep 2026 · 00:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.2 pp

Barra FC

Nacao

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 70.6% DRAW 19.1% AWAY 10.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 69.4% 1.36 DRAW 19.9% 4.75 AWAY 10.7% 8.80

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.2 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Barra FC

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Barra FC Nacao

Shots 7.8 · On target 4.0 Shots 9.5 · On target 3.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Barra FC Nacao

Shots allowed 12.3 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 15.5 · On target allowed 7.3

Barra FC has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Barra FC Nacao

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Barra FC = (0.0%)

Nacao ↑ +1.20 (+16.0%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.