Dynamo Barnaul vs Pobeda Nizhny

25 Sep 2026 · 11:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +2.7 pp

Dynamo Barnaul

Pobeda Nizhny

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 41.1% DRAW 24.7% AWAY 34.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 43.4% 2.08 DRAW 25.2% 3.58 AWAY 31.4% 2.87

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Pobeda Nizhny relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 34.2% win probability, compared with 31.4% implied by the market. The 2.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Dynamo Barnaul

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Dynamo Barnaul Pobeda Nizhny

Shots 9.0 · On target 3.8 Shots 5.5 · On target 3.3

Recent attacking output favours Dynamo Barnaul, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Dynamo Barnaul Pobeda Nizhny

Shots allowed 16.5 · On target allowed 6.8 Shots allowed 6.8 · On target allowed 3.0

Pobeda Nizhny has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Dynamo Barnaul Pobeda Nizhny

The combined recent performance profile favours Pobeda Nizhny.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Dynamo Barnaul ↓ -0.09 (-4.1%)

Pobeda Nizhny ↑ +0.08 (+3.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.