Zambia vs Togo

29 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.7 pp

Zambia

Togo

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 41.9% DRAW 30.7% AWAY 27.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 46.5% 2.08 DRAW 29.8% 3.25 AWAY 23.8% 4.07

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Togo relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 27.4% win probability, compared with 23.8% implied by the market. The 3.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Togo

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Zambia Togo

Shots 6.5 · On target 1.0 Shots 3.0 · On target 2.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Zambia Togo

Shots allowed 13.8 · On target allowed 5.5 Shots allowed 1.5 · On target allowed 1.3

Togo has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Zambia Togo

The combined recent performance profile favours Togo.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Zambia ↑ +0.15 (+7.8%)

Togo ↑ +0.32 (+8.5%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.