Al-Sareeh vs Ma'an

02 Oct 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.3 pp

Al-Sareeh

Ma'an

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 51.0% DRAW 24.7% AWAY 24.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 47.8% 2.00 DRAW 25.6% 3.72 AWAY 26.6% 3.58

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Al-Sareeh relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 51.0% win probability, compared with 47.8% implied by the market. The 3.3 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Al-Sareeh

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Al-Sareeh Ma'an

Shots 6.3 · On target 2.8 Shots 6.3 · On target 3.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Al-Sareeh Ma'an

Shots allowed 7.3 · On target allowed 2.5 Shots allowed 12.3 · On target allowed 6.0

Al-Sareeh has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Al-Sareeh Ma'an

The combined recent performance profile favours Al-Sareeh.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Al-Sareeh ↓ -0.21 (-9.3%)

Ma'an ↑ +0.58 (+19.3%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.