Sama Al Sarhan vs Shabab Al-Aqaba SC

25 Sep 2026 · 15:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +4.7 pp

Sama Al Sarhan

Shabab Al-Aqaba SC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 70.0% DRAW 18.7% AWAY 11.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 65.3% 1.38 DRAW 20.8% 4.33 AWAY 13.9% 6.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Sama Al Sarhan clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 70.0% win probability, compared with 65.3% implied by the market. The 4.7 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Sama Al Sarhan has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Sama Al Sarhan Shabab Al-Aqaba SC

Shots 14.3 · On target 5.3 Shots 5.3 · On target 2.8

Recent attacking output favours Sama Al Sarhan, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Sama Al Sarhan Shabab Al-Aqaba SC

Shots allowed 8.0 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 13.0 · On target allowed 5.3

Sama Al Sarhan has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Sama Al Sarhan Shabab Al-Aqaba SC

The combined recent performance profile favours Sama Al Sarhan.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Sama Al Sarhan ↓ -0.02 (-1.4%)

Shabab Al-Aqaba SC ↑ +0.50 (+8.3%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.