Brusque vs Ferroviaria SP

27 Sep 2026 · 23:30

OPPORTUNITY

STRONG EDGE AWAY +7.6 pp

Brusque

Ferroviaria SP

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 30.4% DRAW 31.0% AWAY 38.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 38.2% 2.50 DRAW 30.8% 3.10 AWAY 31.1% 3.07

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Ferroviaria SP substantially higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 38.6% win probability, compared with 31.1% implied by the market. The 7.6 percentage-point difference indicates a strong divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Ferroviaria SP has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Brusque Ferroviaria SP

Shots 10.8 · On target 4.3 Shots 18.3 · On target 5.3

Recent attacking output favours Ferroviaria SP, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Brusque Ferroviaria SP

Shots allowed 21.5 · On target allowed 8.0 Shots allowed 8.3 · On target allowed 2.3

Ferroviaria SP has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Brusque Ferroviaria SP

The combined recent performance profile favours Ferroviaria SP.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Brusque ↑ +0.27 (+12.1%)

Ferroviaria SP ↓ -0.03 (-1.0%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.