Ferroviaria SP vs Brusque

20 Sep 2026 · 23:30

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +5.8 pp

Ferroviaria SP

Brusque

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 57.9% DRAW 26.8% AWAY 15.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 52.0% 1.80 DRAW 28.4% 3.30 AWAY 19.6% 4.79

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Ferroviaria SP clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 57.9% win probability, compared with 52.0% implied by the market. The 5.8 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Ferroviaria SP has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Ferroviaria SP Brusque

Shots 16.0 · On target 4.3 Shots 10.8 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output favours Ferroviaria SP, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Ferroviaria SP Brusque

Shots allowed 8.5 · On target allowed 2.3 Shots allowed 18.8 · On target allowed 7.5

Ferroviaria SP has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Ferroviaria SP Brusque

The combined recent performance profile favours Ferroviaria SP.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Ferroviaria SP = (0.0%)

Brusque ↑ +0.38 (+8.5%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.