Floresta EC vs Santa Cruz FC

26 Sep 2026 · 22:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.0 pp

Floresta EC

Santa Cruz FC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 36.6% DRAW 34.7% AWAY 28.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 35.6% 2.67 DRAW 33.9% 2.80 AWAY 30.5% 3.11

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.0 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Floresta EC

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Floresta EC Santa Cruz FC

Shots 8.5 · On target 3.0 Shots 6.8 · On target 2.3

Recent attacking output favours Floresta EC, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Floresta EC Santa Cruz FC

Shots allowed 12.5 · On target allowed 2.3 Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 4.0

Floresta EC has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Floresta EC Santa Cruz FC

The combined recent performance profile favours Floresta EC.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Floresta EC ↑ +0.22 (+9.0%)

Santa Cruz FC ↑ +0.01 (+0.3%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.