Gramadense vs EC Pelotas

23 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.1 pp

Gramadense

EC Pelotas

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 40.9% DRAW 33.1% AWAY 26.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 38.7% 2.45 DRAW 32.7% 2.90 AWAY 28.6% 3.32

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.1 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Gramadense

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Gramadense EC Pelotas

Shots 18.0 · On target 6.0 Shots 11.5 · On target 5.0

Recent attacking output favours Gramadense, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Gramadense EC Pelotas

Shots allowed 9.3 · On target allowed 5.3 Shots allowed 11.3 · On target allowed 4.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Gramadense EC Pelotas

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Gramadense ↓ -0.35 (-12.5%)

EC Pelotas ↑ +0.95 (+39.8%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.