Monagas II vs Mineros

27 Sep 2026 · 21:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.7 pp

Monagas II

Mineros

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 40.0% DRAW 29.8% AWAY 30.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 44.2% 2.05 DRAW 29.2% 3.10 AWAY 26.5% 3.42

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Mineros relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 30.2% win probability, compared with 26.5% implied by the market. The 3.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Mineros has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Monagas II Mineros

Shots 8.3 · On target 3.8 Shots 14.5 · On target 7.5

Recent attacking output favours Mineros, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Monagas II Mineros

Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 6.0 Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 3.8

Mineros has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Monagas II Mineros

The combined recent performance profile favours Mineros.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Monagas II = (0.0%)

Mineros ↑ +0.17 (+5.1%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.