Aragua vs Atletico Avila

27 Sep 2026 · 21:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.2 pp

Aragua

Atletico Avila

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 66.6% DRAW 23.5% AWAY 9.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 64.3% 1.44 DRAW 24.4% 3.80 AWAY 11.3% 8.20

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.2 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Aragua has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Aragua Atletico Avila

Shots 12.8 · On target 8.5 Shots 11.0 · On target 5.3

Recent attacking output favours Aragua, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Aragua Atletico Avila

Shots allowed 10.0 · On target allowed 5.3 Shots allowed 14.5 · On target allowed 7.3

Aragua has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Aragua Atletico Avila

The combined recent performance profile favours Aragua.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Aragua ↑ +0.02 (+1.4%)

Atletico Avila ↑ +1.20 (+17.1%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.