AD Tarma vs Cienciano

23 Sep 2026 · 22:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE AWAY +5.0 pp

AD Tarma

Cienciano

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 22.7% DRAW 24.1% AWAY 53.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 26.4% 3.60 DRAW 25.3% 3.75 AWAY 48.2% 1.97

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Cienciano clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 53.2% win probability, compared with 48.2% implied by the market. The 5.0 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Cienciano has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

AD Tarma Cienciano

Shots 10.0 · On target 2.8 Shots 18.0 · On target 6.3

Recent attacking output favours Cienciano, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

AD Tarma Cienciano

Shots allowed 17.3 · On target allowed 5.3 Shots allowed 12.0 · On target allowed 3.5

Cienciano has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

AD Tarma Cienciano

The combined recent performance profile favours Cienciano.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

AD Tarma ↑ +0.85 (+30.9%)

Cienciano ↓ -0.41 (-17.1%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.