Bonsucesso FC U20 vs Sao Goncalo U20

30 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

STRONG EDGE HOME +6.9 pp

Bonsucesso FC U20

Sao Goncalo U20

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 48.9% DRAW 25.5% AWAY 25.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 42.0% 2.30 DRAW 26.7% 3.62 AWAY 31.4% 3.08

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Bonsucesso FC U20 substantially higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 48.9% win probability, compared with 42.0% implied by the market. The 6.9 percentage-point difference indicates a strong divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Bonsucesso FC U20

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Bonsucesso FC U20 Sao Goncalo U20

Shots 10.5 · On target 3.3 Shots 10.5 · On target 4.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Bonsucesso FC U20 Sao Goncalo U20

Shots allowed 4.8 · On target allowed 1.5 Shots allowed 19.3 · On target allowed 7.5

Bonsucesso FC U20 has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Bonsucesso FC U20 Sao Goncalo U20

The combined recent performance profile favours Bonsucesso FC U20.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Bonsucesso FC U20 = (0.0%)

Sao Goncalo U20 ↑ +0.45 (+17.1%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.